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Twigs, other plant matter, and Ice Age animal parts—bison jaws, horse femurs, mammoth bones—spilled onto a beach that sucked at Zimov’s boots. “I love Duvanny Yar,” he said as he yanked fossils from the muck. “It is like a book. Each page is a story about the history of nature.” Few understand this threat better than Zimov. From a ramshackle research station in the gold-mining outpost of Cherskiy, about three hours by speedboat from Duvanny Yar, he has spent decades unearthing the mysteries of a warming Arctic. Along the way, he has helped upend conventional wisdom—especially the notion that the far north, back in the Pleistocene ice ages, had been an unbroken desert of ice and thin soils dotted with sage.Instead, the abundant fossils of mammoths and other large grazers at Duvanny Yar and other sites told Zimov that Siberia, Alaska, and western Canada had been fertile grasslands, rich with herbs and willows. As these plants and animals died, the cold slowed their decomposition. Over time, windblown silt buried them deep, locking them in permafrost. The upshot is that Arctic permafrost is much richer in carbon than scientists once thought.
Now new discoveries suggest that the carbon will escape faster as the planet warms. From the unexpected speed of Arctic warming and the troubling ways that meltwater moves through polar landscapes, researchers now suspect that for every one degree Celsius rise in Earth’s average temperature, permafrost may release the equivalent of four to six years’ worth of coal, oil, and natural gas emissions—double to triple
Across nine million square miles at the top of the planet, climate change is writing a new chapter. Arctic permafrost isn’t thawing gradually, as scientists once predicted. Geologically speaking, it’s thawing almost overnight. As soils like the ones at Duvanny Yar soften and slump, they’re releasing vestiges of ancient life—and masses of carbon—that have been locked in frozen dirt for millennia. Entering the atmosphere as methane or carbon dioxide, the carbon promises to accelerate climate change, even as humans struggle to curb our fossil fuel emissions. It is perhaps our least appreciated reason to hasten a transition to cleaner energy: To reach whatever goal we set to combat warming, we’ll need to move even faster than we think. Permafrost—ground that remains frozen year-round—is capped by a few feet of dirt and plant detritus. Called the active layer, this soil normally thaws each summer and refreezes in winter, protecting permafrost from rising heat above. But in the spring of 2018, a crew working for Nikita found that dirt near the surface around Cherskiy had not iced up at all during the long dark polar night. That was unheard of: January in Siberia is so brutally cold that human breath can freeze with a tinkling sound that the indigenous Yakuts call “the whisper of stars.” The Soviets used to land heavy planes on the Kolyma. Soil 30 inches down should have been frozen. Instead it was mush.
“Three years ago, the temperature in the ground above our permafrost was minus 3 degrees Celsius [27 degrees Fahrenheit],” Sergey Zimov said. “Then it was minus 2. Then it was minus one. This year, the temperature was plus 2 degrees.” On one level that’s not surprising. Earth’s five warmest years since the late 19th century have come since 2014, and the Arctic is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet, as it loses the sea ice that helps chill it. In 2017 tundra in Greenland faced its worst known wildfire. Days before we landed in Siberia, thermometers in Lakselv, Norway, 240 miles above the Arctic Circle, recorded a blistering 32 degrees Celsius, or 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Arctic reindeer hid in road tunnels for relief.Permafrost temperatures globally have been rising for half a century. On Alaska’s North Slope, they spiked 11 degrees Fahrenheit in 30 years. Localized thawing of permafrost, especially in villages where development disturbs the surface and allows heat to penetrate, has eroded shorelines, undermined roads and schools, cracked pipelines, and collapsed ice cellars where Arctic hunters store walrus meat and bowhead whale blubber. Warm summers are already warping life for Arctic residents.
What the Zimovs were documenting in 2018, though, was something different, with implications beyond the Arctic: a wintertime thaw. The culprit, paradoxically, was heavy snow. Siberia is dry, but for several winters before 2018, thick snow had smothered the region. The snow acted like a blanket, trapping summer heat in the soil. At a research site 11 miles from Cherskiy, Mathias Goeckede of Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry found that snow depth had doubled in five years. By April 2018 temperatures in the active layer had risen 10 degrees Fahrenheit.......stunning photos about a ominous planetary threat!....read on https://www.
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The Arctic’s glaciers are retreating, exposing new coastlines that could trigger tsunamis.EuroNews Rebecca Ann Hughes The unstable new coastline poses safety risks for the tourists that flock to coastal glacial areas for their beauty and abundant wildlife. Shrinking glaciers exposed 2,500 kilometres of coastline and 35 ‘new’ islands in the Arctic between 2000 and 2020, new research has found. Scientists examined satellite images of more than 1,700 ice caps in Greenland, Alaska, the Canadian Arctic, the Russian Arctic, Iceland and Svalbard over this 20-year period. Their analysis shows that 85 per cent of these glaciers retreated, uncovering an average of 123 kilometres of new coastline per year. This is “fundamentally altering the nature of Arctic landscapes”, according to Dr Simon Cook, a senior lecturer in environmental sciences at the University of Dundee. The research, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, links the acceleration in glacier melt to rising ocean and air temperatures.
Most of the new coastlines appear in Greenland........As global temperatures rise, glaciers are experiencing increasingly rapid retreat. The base of the glacier, known as the ‘terminus’, begins to melt, shrinking the overall length of the ice cap. Marine-terminating glaciers - which flow into the ocean - often reveal new areas of coastline when they meltFrom satellite imagery of 1,704 marine-terminating glaciers in the northern hemisphere, the researchers mapped the 2,466 kilometres of coastline that were exposed between 2000 and 2020. The study shows that the rate of freshly revealed coastline varies significantly between regions. Just 101 glaciers were responsible for more than half of the total additional coastline length, the authors found.,,,,,read on https://www.euronews.com/green/2025/04/02/the-arctics-glaciers-are-retreating-exposing-new-coastlines-that-could-trigger-tsunamis?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=green_newsletter&utm_medium=referral&insEmail=1&insNltCmpId=257&insNltSldt=10080&insPnName=euronewsfr&isIns=1&isInsNltCmp=1
CHECkOUT......Swiss glaciers shrank during Europe’s record-hot summer despite high snowfall in June
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In 2023, glaciers experienced their greatest water loss in over 50 years, marking the second consecutive year in which all glaciated regions worldwide reported ice loss. Switzerland, for instance, saw their glaciers lose 10 per cent of their total mass between 2022 and 2023, according to the WMO.Dr. Lydia Brito, UNESCO’s Assistant Director-General for Natural Sciences, explained during the launch event in Geneva that the “50 UNESCO heritage sites with glaciers represent almost 10 per cent of Earth's glacier area.” However, a recent study warned that glaciers in one-third of these sites are projected to disappear by 2050. With 2024 confirmed as the hottest year on record, the need for immediate and decisive action has never been more critical.
2025 key initiativesA key focus, the panel explained, is raising global awareness about the essential role glaciers, snow and ice play in regulating the climate and supporting ecosystems and communities.“Glaciers don’t care if we believe in science - they just melt in the heat,” said Dr. Carolina Adler of the Mountain Research Initiative.The initiative also aims to enhance scientific understanding through programmes like the Global Cryosphere Watch, ensuring that data guides effective climate action. Strengthening policy frameworks is another priority, with the integration of glacier preservation into global and national climate strategies, such as the Paris Agreement. Mobilising financial resources is another priority – essential to support vulnerable communities and fund adaptation and mitigation efforts – alongside engaging youth and local comunities.
Milestones on climateThe first World Glacier Day will be celebrated o n 21 March 2025, coinciding with World Water Day, coming a day later.In May, Tajikistan will host the International Glacier Preservation Conference, bringing together scientists, policymakers and community leaders to discuss solutions and form partnerships. “Tajikistan is immensely proud to have played an instrumental role in advocating for this resolution,” said Bahodur Sheralizoda, Chair of Tajikistan’s Committee of Environmental Protection. “Let us be clear, the only way to preserve glaciers as an important resource for the entire planet is for all governments to collectively course correct with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) fully consistent with the 1.5°C Paris Agreement limit,” he underscored.
Challenges aheadAccording to the policy brief on the IYGP, “Some level of glacier loss remains inevitable given current loss rates, which modelling shows will continue until temperatures stabilise.” “We must prepare for cryospheric destruction through urgent policy changes,” explained Dr. John Pomeroy from the University of Saskatchewan.....read on and checkout the related links https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/01/1159236
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Karl has measured the shrinking Wedgemount Glacier in Garibaldi Park every year since 1973 until his retirement in 2023. He documented 700 metres of recession on Wedgemount Glacier over his 50 years of surveys. He also measured the Overlord Glacier in Garibaldi Park for 38 years, which has been receding at a slower rate than Wedgemount Glacier. Karl’s glacier monitoring work has been critical in helping to document the rapid retreat of local glaciers. Why monitor glaciers? Glaciers will grow or shrink in response to a changing climate. Tracking their movements provides researchers with information that can be used to predict future changes and impacts on ecosystems and water availability. Here’s a look at Wedgemount Glacier over the years from 1978-2024. https://engage.gov.bc.ca/bcparksblog/2025/03/13/celebrating-the-uns-international-year-of-glaciers-preservation-with-karl-ricker/
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“Death by a Thousand Cuts” – New Research Reveals That Antarctica’s Ice Shelves Are Dying Scitech University of FloridaJanuary 30, 2025 Study by University of Florida researchers found that Antarctic ice shelf loss is primarily driven by frequent small calving events rather than large iceberg break-offs. Using satellite data and statistical modeling, they determined that extreme calving events remain rare and follow a natural cycle, showing no direct correlation with climate change.Antarctic ice shelves are shrinking mainly due to frequent small calving events, while major iceberg break-offs remain rare and unchanged in frequency.......A recent study by geologists and geographers at the University of Florida provides new insights into the impact of climate change on Antarctic ice shelves. The research confirms widespread ice shelf loss due to rising temperatures but finds that the frequency and size of major iceberg calving events have remained relatively stable. This study was led by Assistant Professor of Geological Sciences Emma MacKie, Ph.D., and Assistant Professor of Geography Katy Serafin, Ph.D., along with a collaborator at the Colorado School of Mines. “Our results suggest that the primary threat to our ice shelves is ‘death by a thousand cuts’ via small calving events, rather than catastrophic extremes,” said MacKie.
Understanding Iceberg Calving.......Calving, when chunks of ice break off from ice shelves to form icebergs, is common and increasingly influenced by climate change. For extremely large icebergs, this process is typically slow, often starting with small rifts that spread across the ice shelf before fully breaking off. These rifts can be detected as they form and grow using satellite data, but their random nature and the risks associated with sending scientists to observe them in person make it extremely difficult to predict when future rifts or calving events may occur. Major calving events are particularly challenging to study. While smaller calving events occur frequently, large events — where over 100 square kilometers of ice break away — are exceptionally rare. This study is the first of its kind to focus on these large calving events. Even with 47 years’ worth of satellite data from 1976 to 2023, the team was still faced with a small sample size. This challenge was addressed with extreme value theory, a type of statistical analysis used when studying rare natural disasters like major earthquakes, extreme floods, or volcanic eruptions. As an expert on extreme flooding, Serafin was no stranger to this type of data analysis. “Statistical models relating event size and frequency are tools that have been used for estimating rare flood events, like a 100-year flood, for decades,” said Serafin. “Now that satellite imagery can more consistently track large calving events, we thought we’d test whether we could apply the same tools for understanding how likely these massive calving events are.”....read on https://scitechdaily.com/death-by-a-thousand-cuts-new-research-reveals-that-antarcticas-ice-shelves-are-dying/
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Extreme Climate Impacts From Collapse of a Key Atlantic Ocean Current Could be Worse Than Expected, a New Study Warns. Disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current could freeze Europe, scorch the tropics and increase sea level rise in the North Atlantic. The tipping point may be closer than predicted in the IPCC’s latest assessment.Inside Climate News Bob Berwyn February 9, 2024 A new study affirms that a critical system of Atlantic Ocean currents that shunt warm and cold water between the poles is “on course” to a tipping point. If the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation fails because of increasing freshwater inflows from melting ice sheets and rivers swelled by global warming, the authors said it would disrupt the climate globally, shifting Asian monsoon rainfall patterns and even reversing the rainy and dry seasons in the Amazon. “It’s a global shift,” said Utrecht University climate and physics researcher René van Westen, co-author of the research published today in Science Advances.
Some of the projected impacts would be nearly impossible to adapt to, said Peter Ditlevsen, an ice and climate researcher with the University of Copenhagen Niels Bohr Institute and the author of a 2023 paper in Nature Communications that warned of a mid-century AMOC tipping point. “A lot of discussion is, how should agriculture prepare for this,” he said.
But a collapse of the heat-transporting circulation is a going-out-of-business scenario for European agriculture, he added. “You cannot adapt to this. There’s some studies of what happens to agriculture in Great Britain, and it becomes like trying to grow potatoes in Northern Norway.” Under the current global warming trend, “It will be about 1 to 2 degrees Celsius warmer by 2050, and then maybe the AMOC tips and results in a slight cooling,” he said. The impact on the average global temperature wouldn’t be extreme, but Western Europe could cool to pre-industrial levels, and would get substantially less precipitation, he added. Other parts of the planet will warm faster, especially the southern hemisphere and tropics, since the heat transport system won’t be able to convey the increasing ocean warmth northward, he added. “It’s not science fiction,” van Westen said. Alarmist or not, “We need to show this is not only a Hollywood blockbuster, ‘The Day After Tomorrow.’ This is real, this can happen. And I think it’s important and urgent to keep saying to people, okay, we need to really tackle our emissions.”.....and yet still nowhere near enough climate action...read on https://insideclimatenews.org/news/09022024/climate-impacts-from-collapse-of-atlantic-meridional-overturning-current-could-be-worse-than-expected/
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- 2024- 28th Year in a row in which Greenland has Lost its Surface Ice
- Oceans face ‘Triple Threat’ of extreme heat, oxygen loss and acidification. A fifth of World’s Ocean Surface driven by burning Fossil Fuel and Deforestation,
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