The Eight Deadly Sins of Analyzing the Energy Transition. The renewable revolution is plainly gaining speed and impact. So why are so many analysts so wrong about the pace and scale of innovation? October 13, 2023 Sam Butler-Sloss,  Kingsmill Bond   The renewable revolution is advancing at remarkable speed. In fact, the speed of the renewable revolution has defied many leading energy commentators who have continuously underestimated its true trajectory. They have suffered from what statisticians call a systematic bias, that is, an error that consistently skews in one direction. Noise, or a random error, is inherent to forecasting; bias, however, requires a deeper explanation. So why do so many intelligent people undersell the pace and dynamism of the renewable revolution? Leaving aside the inherent bias of those seeking to prop up the fossil fuel system in order to enjoy the largesse of its annual $2 trillion in rents,we identify eight deadly sins of the energy transition.Whether intentional or unwitting, these eight general errors of perspective are holding back understanding, wasting time and capital, and fueling unproductive climate pessimism.                                                      1. Linear thinking-The first common error is to think that technology change is linear.  However, technology history is replete with S-shaped curves, not stright lines, from the growth of canals and railways to the internet and mobile phones. These S-curves are driven by the self-reinforcing dynamic of “feedback loops” — change begets change. As technologies grow, they enjoy increasing returns to scale. These include falling costs, rising capabilities, rising consumer awareness, rising lobbying power, and more complementary technologies which all in turn spur greater scale. This is the source of the exponentiality, and it is often missed. The core new energy technologies of solar, wind, batteries, heat pumps and green hydrogen fit the S-shaped growth patterns of the past. Too often the default position is linear change when this is in fact a contrarian view that thinks this time is different.                                                                      2. Lagging indicators......and there's six more                            https://rmi.org/the-eight-deadly-sins-of-analyzing-the-energy-transition/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=spark&utm_content=spark&utm_campaign=2023_10_19&utm_term=title-1         

Fossil Fuel Power Plants Kill 35x More Birds Than Wind Turbines  One of the most effective ways to protect birds is to transition away from fossil fuels. MICHAEL   OCT  12 Over the last year, I've been tracking and reporting on more than 50 clean energy opposition Facebook groups. In this reporting, I've seen one argument over and over: Wind energy is bad because it kills birds. I’ve seen dozens of images of birds killed by wind turbines and links to studies on the topic. As I've written in past stories, these images and posts can have real-world impacts. They change voters’ minds. And they can turn clean energy supporters into passionate opponents.But there's a problem with the bird argument. It fails to put the number of birds killed by wind  in context. Given that wind energy is an alternative to fossil fuel energy, we also must ask: How many birds do fossil fuel power plants kill? In 2012, researchers at Vermont Law School set out to answer this question. Let’s take a look at what they found......Burning fossil fuels also causes acid rain, which directly and indirectly harms birds. As an example, a 2002 study found that acid rain caused the wood thrush population to decline in the United States by 2% to 5%. But the greatest harm that fossil fuels cause birds comes in the form of climate change. A recent study by the National Audubon Society found that two-thirds of all North American bird species are at risk of extinction due to climate change. All of this led the authors of the study to conclude, “The wider use of wind energy can save wildlife and birds as it displaces more harmful sources of electricity.”Put another way: The best way to protect birds is to displace fossil fuels.....No Link, but.... Share

One day soon, a platform 50 times as large may float in the deep waters of the North Sea, buoying up a massive wind turbine to harvest the steady, strong breezes there. About an hour’s ride up the coast, full-scale 3,000-tonne behemoths already float in Aberdeen Bay, capturing enough wind energy to electrify nearly 35,000 Scottish households. The prototype at the FloWave facility—one of 10 new floating wind-power designs tested here—is progressing fast, says Tom Davey, who oversees testing. “Everything you see here has been manufactured and put in the water in the last couple months.” There’s good reasons for this hustle: The United Kingdom wants to add 34 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2030, en route to decarbonizing its grid by 2035. But the shallow waters east of London are already packed with wind turbines. Scotland’s deeper waters are therefore the U.K.’s next frontier. Auctions have set aside parcels for 27 floating wind farms, with a combined capacity exceeding 24 GW.  The steadiest, strongest wind blows over deep water—well beyond the 60- to 70-meter limit for the fixed foundations that anchor traditional wind turbines to the ocean floor. And in many places, such as North America’s deep Pacific coast, the strongest and steadiest wind blows in the evening, which would perfectly complement solar energy’s daytime peaks. Hence the push for wind platforms that float. The Biden administration has called for 15 GW of floating offshore wind capacity in the United States by 2035, and recent research suggests that the U.S. Pacific coast could support 100 GW more by midcentury. Ireland, South Korea, and Taiwan are among the other countries with bold floating wind ambitions. The question is how to scale up the technology to gigawatt scale. This global debate is pitting innovation against risk. In the innovation end are people like Davey and the FloWave team, who’ve already advanced several floating wind devices to sea trials. One FloWave-tested platform, engineered by Copenhagen-based Stiesdal Offshore, was recently selected for a 100-megawatt wind farm to be built off Scotland’s northern tip in 2025. To fully understand what developers are up against, it helps to know how hard it is to deploy any kind of wind power at sea. The 15-MW turbines being ordered today for tomorrow’s offshore wind farms weigh roughly 1,000 tonnes. The foundations of traditional offshore wind turbines are also massive steel or concrete structures that have to be embedded in the ocean floor.You can do without vessels to move all of this out to deep water by using a floating platform. The equipment can be fully assembled on shore and then towed to the site. But having a platform that floats compounds the challenge of supporting the towering turbine. Beyond the technological advantages of using a tried-and-true approach, there’s a financial upside, Smith says. Floating wind developers must convince risk-averse bankers and insurers to back their projects, and it helps to be able to point to your project’s use of established technology. In years past, offshore wind investors who backed innovative but flawed designs suffered huge losses,.Meanwhile, floating wind’s mold-breakers are offering an ever-expanding diversity of technology options. At least 80 designs for platforms or integrated platform-turbines now vie for the floating wind market.......and much more                    https://spectrum.ieee.org/floating-offshore-wind-turbine

The energy technology revolution • Renewable costs are falling on learning curves • Renewable sales are growing exponentially • Capital is shifting to renewables • Fossil fuel demand has already peaked • Most incumbent modelers have missed the transition so far.  Exponential energy change is all around us....Wind Solar EV's and Batteries.  Change is happening across the world.  Adoption of superior technology is not confined to the Global North.  Price falls have unlocked superior renewable solutions.  Renewables are local, cheap, and clean. They provide more local jobs and enable a circular economy.  Capital is shifting into renewables.  Capital flows are therefore flooding into clean energy solutions. In 2023 they will be over 60% of the total. • While capital flows into the fossil fuel system are stagnant, and mainly directed at maintenance. • Half of fossil fuel cash flows are now being repaid, suggesting the sector is approaching rundown. • Nearly 90% of capital flows in the electricity sector in 2023 will be into renewables. • The solar industry is investing over $1B a day and has overtaken oil caps.  Many fossil fuel demand peaks are clearly behind us.  Global fossil fuel demand has peaked around 500 EJ.  The growth of these new energy technologies has been fast enough to mean that we already hit a peak in fossil fuel demand in 2019. • Fossil fuel demand is now bouncing along a plateau; with a couple of small bumps. • The chart illustrates fossil fuel demand forecasts from BNEF in their two core scenarios — in neither case does fossil fuel demand break out of the plateau. • We see a similar framing by the IEA, Rystad, BP, Shell, and McKinsey. At heart this is simple math: Any fast-growing new technology will drive peak incumbent demand early in a transition. • The plateau will end around 2025. And then fossil fuel demand will go into terminal decline......an excellent article and great graphics!      https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2023/06/rmi_renewable_revolution.pdf