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China’s addiction to building new coal-fired power plants is becoming increasingly entrenched, even as the country is on track to reach peak CO2 emissions before its 2030 target. As climate officials from around the world prepare to meet in the United Arab Emirates for Cop28, many are hoping that the recent joint climate agreement between the US and China, released days before Joe Biden and Xi Jinping met in California, can lay the groundwork for positive commitments at the UN’s climate conference. The last major breakthrough involving China at Cop was at Cop26 in Glasgow, in 2021. At that conference, China pledged CO2 emissions would peak by 2030. Xi said that China would “strictly control coal-fired power generation projects”. But 2021 was also the year in which severe power outages blighted many parts of China, leading to rationing, closed factories and cold homes as local authorities struggled to cope with sudden shortages of energy.
In 2022, further energy crunches in south-west China underlined the importance of stable energy supplies to Chinese officials. That has put the commitment to reduce reliance on coal-fired energy in direct tension with the new emphasis on energy security. “Chinese officials view coal as the primary guarantee of energy security,” said Anders Hove, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “For this reason, it is now considered sensitive to criticise the country’s present investments in coal.” Local governments in China approved 50.4GW of new coal power in the first half of 2023. And in 2022, construction started on 50GW of coal capacity, an amount six times as large as the rest of the world combined. Despite growing demand for energy, China still has far more coal power capacity than it needs. Last year the average utilisation rate for coal power plants was just over 50%. Experts say that the way to ensure China’s energy security is to improve the technological infrastructure of the grid to make it more stable and efficient, not build new dirty generators. Getting the energy to the right place at the right time is one of the biggest challenges facing China’s energy transition. Local government officials, who are more concerned with keeping the lights on than with green targets, see coal as a safety net.“Energy storage is the key for China’s energy transition,” said Gao Yuhe, a senior campaigner at Greenpeace East Asia. Energy storage can enable “renewable energy to take a leading role in the whole energy transition”. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/27/china-coal-addiction-spotlight-climate-ambitions-cop
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World’s biggest economies pumping billions into fossil fuels in poor nations. G20 countries spent $142bn in three years to expand operations despite a G7 pledge to stop doing so, study finds.Guardian. Guardian Fiona Harvey Tue 9 Apr 2024 The world’s biggest economies have continued to finance the expansion of fossil fuels in poor countries to the tune of billions of dollars, despite their commitments on the climate.The G20 group of developed and developing economies, and the multilateral development banks they fund, put $142bn (£112bn) into fossil fuel developments overseas from 2020 to 2022, according to estimates compiled by the campaigning groups Oil Change International (OCI) and Friends of the Earth US. Canada, Japan and South Korea were the biggest sources of such finance in the three years studied, and gas received more funding than either coal or oil. The G7 group of biggest economies, to which Japan and Canada belong, pledged in 2022 to halt overseas funding of fossil fuels. But while funding for coal has rapidly diminished, finance for oil and gas projects has continued at a strong pace.vSome of the money is going to other developed economies, including Australia, but much of it is to the developing world. However, richer middle income countries still receive more finance than the poorest.
The most recent G7 pledge, in the study, is to phase out all overseas fossil fuel funding by the end of 2022. The OCI study concentrates on the period from the beginning of the fiscal year of 2020-21 for each country, to the end of the fiscal year of 2022-23. However, the researchers also found that Japan had continued to make new fossil fuel investments overseas in the past few weeks, up to mid-March 2024, exploiting loopholes in its promise to end fossil fuel funding. The World Bank provided about $1.2bn a year to fossil fuels over the three-year period, of which about two-thirds went to gas projects. The US, Germany and Italy also provided billions in funding a year to overseas fossil fuel projects before the end of 2022-23, according to the report published on Tuesday. The UK supplied about $600m a year on average......read on https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/09/worlds-biggest-economies-pumping-billions-into-fossil-fuels-in-poor-nations
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CANADA- Alberta- China’s Peak Oil Demand Bombshell Eviscerates Danielle Smith’s energy Strategy. Time to reconsider Alberta’s 'dangerously inept' Emissions Reduction and Energy Development Plan. Markham Hislop. This post originally appeared on Energi Media in late December, 2023. China dealt a serious political blow to Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in late December when the country’s largest refiner, state-owned Sinopec, released its latest long-term energy forecast. Oil demand is now expected to peak in just a few years, not in 2045 as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting States (OPEC) has predicted. Sinopec’s announcement calls into question Alberta’s energy strategy, which is based upon growing global oil and gas consumption to 2050. Smith has been a vocal supporter of the “slow energy transition” narrative promoted by Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern oil-producing countries. At the World Petroleum Congress, hosted in September by Calgary, the Premier lambasted the International Energy Agency (IEA) for forecasting global peak oil demand by 2030. At a September 18 news conference, she accused the IEA of abandoning its 50-year-old role of “doing predictions” and instead indulging in “political advocacy”. Smith praised Saudi leadership in her remarks. “I feel like we’re going to be in a bit of a technological and innovation race with Saudi Arabia, and I think we heard that from the [Saudi] energy minister this morning,” she told reporters. “He intends to lead the world in this and he is challenging the rest of us to keep up. Alberta wants to keep up.” Saudi Arabia is the leader of OPEC, the oil cartel that has been cutting production by millions of barrels per day to prop up prices during a softening of the international economy. The organization released its oil forecast a few weeks after the World Petroleum Congress. The report predicts continued growth of oil consumption to a peak of 116 million barrels per day by mid-century, up from 100 million barrels per day in 2022. China Sees a Different Future...... China plays a prominent role in OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2045. The world’s second largest oil consumer is forecast to use 18.8 million barrels per day by 2045, an increase of four million barrels per day from 2022 levels. Sinopec’s report estimates that demand will peak at 16 million barrels per day between 2026 and 2030. The China National Petroleum Corporation thinks Chinese gasoline demand will peak in 2025, followed soon after by diesel, and then shrink 2.3 per cent annually until 2030. The cause of China’s peak oil demand is the more rapid than expected electrification of transportation. In the third quarter of 2023, 38% of passenger cars sold in China were electric. The country has already switched most of its bus fleet to electric (approximately 600,000 in service) and almost half of two- and three-wheelers, an important mode of transport in Asia, are electric. Sinopec credits China’s “dual carbon” energy strategy for peaking oil demand. In an Energi Talks podcast interview, Eurasia Group analyst Herbert Crowther explains President Xi Jinping’s plan to massively boost renewable energy and electric technologies (e.g. EVs, heat pumps) while slowing use of fossil fuels. China’s energy trends are not a mystery. But too many players in the oil and gas industry, including leaders of the Alberta sector, prefer to dismiss China’s electrification efforts by pointing to massive coal use in the power sector. Wildly Over-Optimistic’......One wonders how OPEC’s modellers got it so wrong. And, perhaps more importantly, what other assumptions will prove to be wildly over-optimistic. The much maligned (at least in Alberta) IEA got it pretty much dead on with its China oil demand forecast. “Oil consumption peaks at 16.6 [million barrels per day] before 2030, ending decades of growth, and then declines steadily to 12 [million barrels per day] in 2050,” the IEA said of its business as usual scenario in the World Energy Outlook 2023. The announced policies scenario, the more likely in my opinion, pegs 2050 demand at seven million barrels per day. https://energymixweekender.
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It’s a filthy fossil fuel, but not all coal is the same Cloe Logan | Explainer | January 23rd 2024As Canada phases out coal at home, it continues exporting it overseas, pushing planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions even higher and making tons of money in the process. In this series, Canada’s National Observer digs into efforts to end coal, barriers in the way and solutions needed to get off fossil fuels for good. #1 in a series of 5 .........We are examining the role of coal in our economy and abroad as part of a limited series. This explainer looks at the difference between metallurgical and thermal coal and breaks down important export data. Coal is the cheapest, dirtiest fossil fuel in the world. Used for heat, power and steelmaking, it releases more carbon dioxide when burned than oil or gas. And in 2022, worldwide coal consumption reached a high despite a promise at the 2021 United Nations climate conference to “phase down” its use. Countries are shutting down coal-fired power plants and making rules about transitioning off the fossil fuel for electricity. Canada has legislation that says all energy produced by thermal coal, which is burned for electricity, will be phased out by 2030. However, there’s another classification of coal the Canadian government has no plans to phase out: metallurgical coal, or the type used for steelmaking. So, what’s the difference between the two? And why should we care about Canada’s continued export of coal? Canada’s National Observer is examining the role of the fossil fuel in our economy and abroad as part of a limited series. Here is some background to prepare you before we dig in. What is metallurgical coal?......According to the World Coal Association, 70 per cent of the steel produced uses metallurgical coal. It is used to produce coke, which is fed into extremely hot furnaces to turn iron ore into steel. Coke is a preferred fuel source because it burns cleaner than coal, which helps keep the steel free of impurities. Just over half of the coal produced in Canada in 2019 was metallurgical coal. In British Columbia, over 95 per cent of coal currently produced is metallurgical. The price of metallurgical coal shot up in 2021, prompting the reopening of Nova Scotia’s Donkin mine in 2022, Canada’s only underground coal mine, which has since closed again. The makeup of thermal and metallurgical coal differs. BHP, a major Australian mining company, stateson its website: “Metallurgical coal is a black sedimentary rock found within the Earth's crust. It is higher in carbon, typically low in moisture and is an essential part of the steelmaking process.” About 11 per cent of global carbon emissions come from the steelmaking industry, according to Steel Watch. And while Canada has clear targets to phase out thermal coal, there is no legislation to end the production or use of metallurgical coal. There is a notable operation in Canada — the ArcelorMittal plant in Hamilton, Ont. — on track to eliminate coal from its steelmaking process by 2028. What is thermal coal?...... Thermal coal is burned to create steam, which generates electricity......read on https://www.nationalobserver.
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Air Pollution From Canadian Tar Sands Up to 6,300% Worse Than Industry Reports "In quantifying the astonishing and largely unreported levels," said a Greenpeace campaigner, "these scientists have validated what downwind Indigenous communities have been saying for decadeJESSICA CORBETT Jan 26, 2024 Aircraft measurements of pollutants over the Athabasca tar sands in Alberta, Canada show levels exceeding industry reports by 1,900% to more than 6,300%, scientists revealed Thursday, underscoring the need for humanity to rapidly phase out fossil fuels. While the Canadian government requires air quality monitoring around oil sands operations, industry figures focus on certain compounds. For this research, published Thursday in the journal Science, experts from Yale University and Environment and Climate Change Canada, a department of the Canadian government, accounted for a wider range of emissions. After collecting data from 30 flights around 17 tar sands operations in 2018, "what we saw were very large emissions of total gas-phase organic carbon from these facilities," said co-author and Yale professor Drew Gentner in a statement. "On average, the majority of the total gas-phase organic carbon was from often overlooked compounds, which are typically outside of the scope of routine monitoring." Co-author John Liggio of Environment and Climate Change Canada noted that "the magnitude of the observed emissions from oil sands operations was larger than expected, considering that it was roughly equivalent to the sum of all other anthropogenic sources across Canada when including all the motor vehicles, all the solvents, all the other oil and gas sources, and everything else reported to the inventory."Nadine Borduas-Dedekind, a University of British Columbia atmospheric chemist who has worked with Liggio but was not involved with this study, toldNature that "I'm concerned by how big this number is." "You want to be measuring all this carbon. For air quality, for health, but also for climate," she said, explaining that some of the molecules are oxidized to planet-heating carbon dioxide.Thanks to the tar sands deposits across northern Alberta, which are estimated to contain 1.7-2.5 trillion barrels of oil, Canada trails only Saudi Arabia and Venezuela in terms of total known reserves. As Inside Climate News detailed Thursday:The deposits do not technically hold crude oil, but instead a heavier hydrocarbon called bitumen, which must be heated and treated in order to form a liquid that can be piped and refined like oil. That process requires sprawling industrial operations of open pit mines, ever-growing waste ponds, and refinery-like "upgraders." The waste ponds have leached toxic chemicals into groundwater, and a heavy, sulfurous stench often settles over the region. The mines have stripped away an area larger than New York City, lands that had long been occupied by people from several Indigenous First Nations. One of those First Nations, Fort McKay, is now surrounded by mines. https://www.commondreams.org/
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