Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds. Scientists say ‘shocking’ discovery shows rapid cuts in carbon emissions are needed to avoid catastrophic fallout. Guardian Damian Carrington 28Aug 2025 The research found that if carbon emissions continued to rise, 70% of the model runs led to collapse, while an intermediate level of emissions resulted in collapse in 37% of the models. Even in the case of low future emissions, an Amoc shutdown happened in 25% of the models. Scientists have warned previously that Amoc collapse must be avoided “at all costs”. It would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of people rely to grow their food, plunge western Europe into extreme cold winters and summer droughts, and add 50cm to already rising sea levels. The new results are “quite shocking, because I used to say that the chance of Amoc collapsing as a result of global warming was less than 10%”, said Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who was part of the study team. “Now even in a low-emission scenario, sticking to the Paris agreement, it looks like it may be more like 25%. “These numbers are not very certain, but we are talking about a matter of risk assessment where even a 10% chance of an Amoc collapse would be far too high. We found that the tipping point where the shutdown becomes inevitable is probably in the next 10 to 20 years or so. That is quite a shocking finding as well and why we have to act really fast in cutting down emissions.”

Scientists spotted warning signs of a tipping point in 2021 and know that the Amoc has collapsed in the Earth’s past. “Observations in the deep [far North Atlantic] already show a downward trend over the past five to 10 years, consistent with the models’ projections,” said Prof Sybren Drijfhout, at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, who was also part of the team. “Even in some intermediate and low-emission scenarios, the Amoc slows dramatically by 2100 and completely shuts off thereafter. That shows the shutdown risk is more serious than many people realise.” The study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, analysed the standard models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The scientists were particularly concerned to find that in many models the tipping point is reached in the next decade or two, after which the shutdown of the Amoc becomes inevitable owing to a self-amplifying feedback. Air temperatures are rising rapidly in the Arctic because of the climate crisis, meaning the ocean cools more slowly there. Warmer water is less dense and therefore sinks into the depths more slowly. This slowing allows more rainfall to accumulate in the salty surface waters, also making it less dense, and further slowing the sinking, forming the feedback loop. Another new study, using a different approach, also found the tipping point is probably going to be reached around the middle of this century......(ed.- an ominous outcome- a new Ice Age' in medieval Europe as before and and many other dire outcomes)....read on  https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/28/collapse-critical-atlantic-current-amoc-no-longer-low-likelihood-study

‘We are in an era of megafires’: new tactics demanded as wildfires intensify across South America.  Recent blazes in Chile and Argentina have highlighted the need for better environmental laws as the climate crisis deepens.Guardian Sam Meadows in Buenos Aires 13 Feb 2024  As South America endures unprecedented high temperatures, after the hottest January on record globally, it is still coming to terms with the devastating wildfires that have torn across the continent. Chile has been the most notably affected country, with at least 131 people dying in a fire that ripped through the coastal Valparaíso region in what has quickly become a national tragedy. Last year, at least 23 people died in summer wildfires in the country. However, it is not the only country suffering from out-of-control blazes. In Argentinian Patagonia, a fire in the Los Alerces national park has scorched more than 6,000 hectares (14,800 acres) of land, while fires in Colombia ravaged more than 17,000 hectares (42,000 acres) in January. According to the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, 2023 was a year of intense wildfire activity in South America.

Wildfire carbon emissions in Chile and parts of Argentina in the first two months were the second highest in 20 years. Human activity sparks the vast majority of wildfires in South America. Chile’s fire authority, Conaf, has attributed 99.7% of fires to “carelessness or negligence” by human actors. Meanwhile, local officials have blamed campers for the Los Alerces fires in Argentina.  Fires have become an increasing problem in recent years. Scientists cite a combination of El Niño, a weather pattern that causes sea temperatures to rise in the Pacific, affecting weather worldwide, and the climate crisis for creating the conditions in which fires can spread uncontrolled.....read on  https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/feb/13/megafires-wildfires-chile-argentina-south-america

Climate misinformation – the term used by the report for both deliberate and inadvertent falsehoods – is of increasing concern. Last Thursday, the UN special rapporteur on human rights and climate change, Elisa Morgera, called for misinformation and greenwashing by the fossil fuel industry to be criminalised. On Saturday, Brazil, host of the upcoming Cop30 climate summit, will rally nations behind a separate UN initiative to crack down on climate misinformation.“It is a major problem,” said Dr Klaus Jensen, of the University of Copenhagen, who co-led the Ipie review. “If we don’t have the right information available, how are we going to vote for the right causes and politicians, and how are politicians going to translate the clear evidence into the necessary action?

Did you notice? All the newscast headlines are screaming about the massive fires, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes and droughts but a single word about the cause- CLIMATE CHANGE & GLOBAL HEATING.......except for the Guardian of course. All of this is the most shameful by the developed countries and the unholy union of the corporate sector, (especially fossil fuel companies) and governments found within. But it seems that the general public has now been lulled into complacency.....so society is presently merrily skipping on towards a precipice of disaster....tra-la-la-la........and guess what? ....there's no guarantee that any of the proposed climate geoengineering interventions such as spreading aerosols will be effective enough to save us and all the other biomes on this planet from burning in a living hell.
Your Choice - Climate Movement or Trump's Far Right Bowel Movement......read the article
There's a noticeable trend in news coverage where the dramatic impacts of extreme weather events like fires, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, and droughts are highlighted, but the connection to climate change is often understated or absent in headlines. This creates a situation where the public is confronted with the consequences of climate change without a clear understanding of its root cause. Here's why this is problematic:

Lack of Context:
Headlines that focus solely on the immediate impact of these events without mentioning climate change fail to provide the necessary context for understanding the long-term trend and the role humans play in exacerbating these events.
Delayed Action:
When the public isn't made aware of the link between extreme weather and climate change, there's a risk of delayed or inadequate action on mitigation and adaptation strategies. Without understanding the cause, it's harder to grasp the urgency of the situation.
Misinformation:
The absence of climate change in headlines can create an opening for misinformation and denial, potentially eroding public trust in scientific findings.

Why is the link often omitted? Simplification: Headlines are often designed to be short and attention-grabbing, which can lead to oversimplification and the omission of complex information like climate change. Political Sensitivities: Climate change can be a politically charged topic, and some news organizations might be hesitant to highlight the link due to potential backlash. Focus on Immediate Impact: News outlets often prioritize the immediate impact of a disaster to capture audience attention, potentially sacrificing longer-term context. Uncertainty: While the scientific consensus on climate change is strong, some aspects of its impact on specific events can be difficult to predict with certainty. This can lead to hesitancy in explicitly linking an event to climate change in headlines. The Importance of Transparency.......It's crucial for news organizations to accurately and transparently report on the connection between climate change and extreme weather events. This includes....... Explicitly mentioning climate change in headlines: Even if it's a brief mention, it helps to contextualize the event.

Providing scientific context:
Including information about the role of climate change in intensifying these events helps the public understand the underlying causes.
Highlighting local impacts:
Focusing on the specific ways climate change is affecting local communities can make the issue more relatable and urgent.
Avoiding sensationalism:
While extreme weather is dramatic, focusing on the scientific evidence and the long-term implications is more effective in fostering informed public discourse.

Climate breakdown is not something in the future, it's here now. Already we are seeing more extreme weather events which can have a deadly impact, particularly in the poorest countries which have done least to cause the crisis.

The number of climate disasters has increased five-fold over recent decades. In the 1970s, 711 were recorded, but this number increased to 3536 in the 2000s and 3165 in the 2010s, a clear sign of climate breakdown. Better early warning systems have meant deaths have actually fallen over this period. But in the 2000s 329,000 people died from storms, floods, landslides, extreme heat, drought and wildfire, and 185,000 in the 2010s.

While people may be evacuated, their homes, farms and the infrastructure of towns and cities cannot be moved out of danger. Physical destruction and its economic cost has risen dramatically as climate disasters have increased. There is also an impact on ecosystems. The devastating Australian bushfires of 2019-20 are also estimated to have affected almost 3 billion animals, either killed or displaced with 'not great' prospects of survival.

Not all of these events make the headlines, and some which do are quickly forgotten, despite the fact that there is no full 'recovery' from some disasters. This page will be regularly updated with news of the most recent events and reports from ongoing crises. Some of these have a very clear link to human-caused global warming. Other extreme weather events fall within the range of 'normal' variability. However it is important to raise awareness of these too. As time goes on, patterns of increased frequency and severity can often be detected. They also help us remember how vulnerable particular regions (especially in the Global South) are to an increasingly destabilised climate.

For more information on the causal links between global heating and deadly events like drought, flooding, hurricanes and landslides, read on...... A more dangerous climate: why extreme weather events are becoming more common..............
Latest headlines
Cyclone Chido devastates Mayotte

Cyclone Chido killed 45 people in Mozambique and 13 in Malawi, but its most devastating impact was on Mayotte, an archipelago between Madagascar and Mozambique, is a department of France with an official population of 320,000. But there are as many as 200,000 more undocumented migrants, most from the nearby island of Comoros, and around one-third of the population live in densely populated, tin-roofed informal settlements, many of which were literally flattened by winds of up to 140mph. A large proportion of these undocumented migrants did not leave the slums for storm shelters because of fears of being deported, and casualties were buried without being reported so the true death toll from this disaster is very unlikely to ever be known. There is also of course the longer-term impact on mortality of the damage to livelihoods and immediate health impacts from losing access to clean water and other vital infrastructure.
Repeated storms hit the Philippines.......read on- the number of disasters due to Climate Change is enormous